Disclaimer: None of this is financial advice. I have no idea what I'm doing. Please do your own research or you will certainly lose money. I'm not a statistician, data scientist, well-seasoned trader, or anything else that would qualify me to make statements such as the below with any weight behind them. Take them for the incoherent ramblings that they are. TL;DR at the bottom for those not interested in the details. This is a bit of a novel, sorry about that. It was mostly for getting my own thoughts organized, but if even one person reads the whole thing I will feel incredibly accomplished.
For those of you not familiar, please see the various threads on this trading system here. I can't take credit for this system, all glory goes to ParallaxFX! I wanted to see how effective this system was at H1 for a couple of reasons: 1) My current broker is TD Ameritrade - their Forex minimum is a mini lot, and I don't feel comfortable enough yet with the risk to trade mini lots on the higher timeframes(i.e. wider pip swings) that ParallaxFX's system uses, so I wanted to see if I could scale it down. 2) I'm fairly impatient, so I don't like to wait days and days with my capital tied up just to see if a trade is going to win or lose. This does mean it requires more active attention since you are checking for setups once an hour instead of once a day or every 4-6 hours, but the upside is that you trade more often this way so you end up winning or losing faster and moving onto the next trade. Spread does eat more of the trade this way, but I'll cover this in my data below - it ends up not being a problem. I looked at data from 6/11 to 7/3 on all pairs with a reasonable spread(pairs listed at bottom above the TL;DR). So this represents about 3-4 weeks' worth of trading. I used mark(mid) price charts. Spreadsheet link is below for anyone that's interested.
I'm pretty much using ParallaxFX's system textbook, but since there are a few options in his writeups, I'll include all the discretionary points here:
I'm using the stop entry version - so I wait for the price to trade beyond the confirmation candle(in the direction of my trade) before entering. I don't have any data to support this decision, but I've always preferred this method over retracement-limit entries. Maybe I just like the feeling of a higher winrate even though there can be greater R:R using a limit entry. Variety is the spice of life.
I put my stop loss right at the opposite edge of the confirmation candle. NOT at the edge of the 2-candle pattern that makes up the system. I'll get into this more below - not enough trades are saved to justify the wider stops. (Wider stop means less $ per pip won, assuming you still only risk 1%).
All my profit/loss statistics are based on a 1% risk per trade. Because 1 is real easy to multiply.
There are definitely some questionable trades in here, but I tried to make it as mechanical as possible for evaluation purposes. They do fit the definitions of the system, which is why I included them. You could probably improve the winrate by being more discretionary about your trades by looking at support/resistance or other techniques.
I didn't use MBB much for either entering trades, or as support/resistance indicators. Again, trying to be pretty mechanical here just for data collection purposes. Plus, we all make bad trading decisions now and then, so let's call it even.
As stated in the title, this is for H1 only. These results may very well not play out for other time frames - who knows, it may not even work on H1 starting this Monday. Forex is an unpredictable place.
I collected data to show efficacy of taking profit at three different levels: -61.8%, -100% and -161.8% fib levels described in the system using the passive trade management method(set it and forget it). I'll have more below about moving up stops and taking off portions of a position.
And now for the fun. Results!
Total Trades: 241
TP at -61.8%: 177 out of 241: 73.44%
TP at -100%: 156 out of 241: 64.73%
TP at -161.8%: 121 out of 241: 50.20%
Adjusted Proft % (takes spread into account):
TP at -61.8%: 5.22%
TP at -100%: 23.55%
TP at -161.8%: 29.14%
As you can see, a higher target ended up with higher profit despite a much lower winrate. This is partially just how things work out with profit targets in general, but there's an additional point to consider in our case: the spread. Since we are trading on a lower timeframe, there is less overall price movement and thus the spread takes up a much larger percentage of the trade than it would if you were trading H4, Daily or Weekly charts. You can see exactly how much it accounts for each trade in my spreadsheet if you're interested. TDA does not have the best spreads, so you could probably improve these results with another broker. EDIT: I grabbed typical spreads from other brokers, and turns out while TDA is pretty competitive on majors, their minors/crosses are awful! IG beats them by 20-40% and Oanda beats them 30-60%! Using IG spreads for calculations increased profits considerably (another 5% on top) and Oanda spreads increased profits massively (another 15%!). Definitely going to be considering another broker than TDA for this strategy. Plus that'll allow me to trade micro-lots, so I can be more granular(and thus accurate) with my position sizing and compounding.
A Note on Spread
As you can see in the data, there were scenarios where the spread was 80% of the overall size of the trade(the size of the confirmation candle that you draw your fibonacci retracements over), which would obviously cut heavily into your profits. Removing any trades where the spread is more than 50% of the trade width improved profits slightly without removing many trades, but this is almost certainly just coincidence on a small sample size. Going below 40% and even down to 30% starts to cut out a lot of trades for the less-common pairs, but doesn't actually change overall profits at all(~1% either way). However, digging all the way down to 25% starts to really make some movement. Profit at the -161.8% TP level jumps up to 37.94% if you filter out anything with a spread that is more than 25% of the trade width! And this even keeps the sample size fairly large at 187 total trades. You can get your profits all the way up to 48.43% at the -161.8% TP level if you filter all the way down to only trades where spread is less than 15% of the trade width, however your sample size gets much smaller at that point(108 trades) so I'm not sure I would trust that as being accurate in the long term. Overall based on this data, I'm going to only take trades where the spread is less than 25% of the trade width. This may bias my trades more towards the majors, which would mean a lot more correlated trades as well(more on correlation below), but I think it is a reasonable precaution regardless.
Time of Day
Time of day had an interesting effect on trades. In a totally predictable fashion, a vast majority of setups occurred during the London and New York sessions: 5am-12pm Eastern. However, there was one outlier where there were many setups on the 11PM bar - and the winrate was about the same as the big hours in the London session. No idea why this hour in particular - anyone have any insight? That's smack in the middle of the Tokyo/Sydney overlap, not at the open or close of either. On many of the hour slices I have a feeling I'm just dealing with small number statistics here since I didn't have a lot of data when breaking it down by individual hours. But here it is anyway - for all TP levels, these three things showed up(all in Eastern time):
7pm-4am: Fewer setups, but winrate high.
5am-6am: Lots of setups, but but winrate low.
12pm-3pm Medium number of setups, but winrate low.
I don't have any reason to think these timeframes would maintain this behavior over the long term. They're almost certainly meaningless. EDIT: When you de-dup highly correlated trades, the number of trades in these timeframes really drops, so from this data there is no reason to think these timeframes would be any different than any others in terms of winrate. That being said, these time frames work out for me pretty well because I typically sleep 12am-7am Eastern time. So I automatically avoid the 5am-6am timeframe, and I'm awake for the majority of this system's setups.
Moving stops up to breakeven
This section goes against everything I know and have ever heard about trade management. Please someone find something wrong with my data. I'd love for someone to check my formulas, but I realize that's a pretty insane time commitment to ask of a bunch of strangers. Anyways. What I found was that for these trades moving stops up...basically at all...actually reduced the overall profitability. One of the data points I collected while charting was where the price retraced back to after hitting a certain milestone. i.e. once the price hit the -61.8% profit level, how far back did it retrace before hitting the -100% profit level(if at all)? And same goes for the -100% profit level - how far back did it retrace before hitting the -161.8% profit level(if at all)? Well, some complex excel formulas later and here's what the results appear to be. Emphasis on appears because I honestly don't believe it. I must have done something wrong here, but I've gone over it a hundred times and I can't find anything out of place.
Moving SL up to 0% when the price hits -61.8%, TP at -100%
Adjusted Proft % (takes spread into account): 5.36%
Taking half position off at -61.8%, moving SL up to 0%, TP remaining half at -100%
Adjusted Proft % (takes spread into account): -1.01% (yes, a net loss)
Now, you might think exactly what I did when looking at these numbers: oof, the spread killed us there right? Because even when you move your SL to 0%, you still end up paying the spread, so it's not truly "breakeven". And because we are trading on a lower timeframe, the spread can be pretty hefty right? Well even when I manually modified the data so that the spread wasn't subtracted(i.e. "Breakeven" was truly +/- 0), things don't look a whole lot better, and still way worse than the passive trade management method of leaving your stops in place and letting it run. And that isn't even a realistic scenario because to adjust out the spread you'd have to move your stoploss inside the candle edge by at least the spread amount, meaning it would almost certainly be triggered more often than in the data I collected(which was purely based on the fib levels and mark price). Regardless, here are the numbers for that scenario:
Moving SL up to 0% when the price hits -61.8%, TP at -100%
Winrate(breakeven doesn't count as a win): 46.4%
Adjusted Proft % (takes spread into account): 17.97%
Taking half position off at -61.8%, moving SL up to 0%, TP remaining half at -100%
Winrate(breakeven doesn't count as a win): 65.97%
Adjusted Proft % (takes spread into account): 11.60%
From a literal standpoint, what I see behind this behavior is that 44 of the 69 breakeven trades(65%!) ended up being profitable to -100% after retracing deeply(but not to the original SL level), which greatly helped offset the purely losing trades better than the partial profit taken at -61.8%. And 36 went all the way back to -161.8% after a deep retracement without hitting the original SL. Anyone have any insight into this? Is this a problem with just not enough data? It seems like enough trades that a pattern should emerge, but again I'm no expert. I also briefly looked at moving stops to other lower levels (78.6%, 61.8%, 50%, 38.2%, 23.6%), but that didn't improve things any. No hard data to share as I only took a quick look - and I still might have done something wrong overall. The data is there to infer other strategies if anyone would like to dig in deep(more explanation on the spreadsheet below). I didn't do other combinations because the formulas got pretty complicated and I had already answered all the questions I was looking to answer.
2-Candle vs Confirmation Candle Stops
Another interesting point is that the original system has the SL level(for stop entries) just at the outer edge of the 2-candle pattern that makes up the system. Out of pure laziness, I set up my stops just based on the confirmation candle. And as it turns out, that is much a much better way to go about it. Of the 60 purely losing trades, only 9 of them(15%) would go on to be winners with stops on the 2-candle formation. Certainly not enough to justify the extra loss and/or reduced profits you are exposing yourself to in every single other trade by setting a wider SL. Oddly, in every single scenario where the wider stop did save the trade, it ended up going all the way to the -161.8% profit level. Still, not nearly worth it.
As I've said many times now, I'm really not qualified to be doing an analysis like this. This section in particular. Looking at shared currency among the pairs traded, 74 of the trades are correlated. Quite a large group, but it makes sense considering the sort of moves we're looking for with this system. This means you are opening yourself up to more risk if you were to trade on every signal since you are technically trading with the same underlying sentiment on each different pair. For example, GBP/USD and AUD/USD moving together almost certainly means it's due to USD moving both pairs, rather than GBP and AUD both moving the same size and direction coincidentally at the same time. So if you were to trade both signals, you would very likely win or lose both trades - meaning you are actually risking double what you'd normally risk(unless you halve both positions which can be a good option, and is discussed in ParallaxFX's posts and in various other places that go over pair correlation. I won't go into detail about those strategies here). Interestingly though, 17 of those apparently correlated trades ended up with different wins/losses. Also, looking only at trades that were correlated, winrate is 83%/70%/55% (for the three TP levels). Does this give some indication that the same signal on multiple pairs means the signal is stronger? That there's some strong underlying sentiment driving it? Or is it just a matter of too small a sample size? The winrate isn't really much higher than the overall winrates, so that makes me doubt it is statistically significant. One more funny tidbit: EUCAD netted the lowest overall winrate: 30% to even the -61.8% TP level on 10 trades. Seems like that is just a coincidence and not enough data, but dang that's a sucky losing streak. EDIT: WOW I spent some time removing correlated trades manually and it changed the results quite a bit. Some thoughts on this below the results. These numbers also include the other "What I will trade" filters. I added a new worksheet to my data to show what I ended up picking.
Total Trades: 75
TP at -61.8%: 84.00%
TP at -100%: 73.33%
TP at -161.8%: 60.00%
Moving SL up to 0% when the price hits -61.8%, TP at -100%: 53.33%
Taking half position off at -61.8%, moving SL up to 0%, TP remaining half at -100%: 53.33% (yes, oddly the exact same winrate. but different trades/profits)
Adjusted Proft % (takes spread into account):
TP at -61.8%: 18.13%
TP at -100%: 26.20%
TP at -161.8%: 34.01%
Moving SL up to 0% when the price hits -61.8%, TP at -100%: 19.20%
Taking half position off at -61.8%, moving SL up to 0%, TP remaining half at -100%: 17.29%
To do this, I removed correlated trades - typically by choosing those whose spread had a lower % of the trade width since that's objective and something I can see ahead of time. Obviously I'd like to only keep the winning trades, but I won't know that during the trade. This did reduce the overall sample size down to a level that I wouldn't otherwise consider to be big enough, but since the results are generally consistent with the overall dataset, I'm not going to worry about it too much. I may also use more discretionary methods(support/resistance, quality of indecision/confirmation candles, news/sentiment for the pairs involved, etc) to filter out correlated trades in the future. But as I've said before I'm going for a pretty mechanical system. This brought the 3 TP levels and even the breakeven strategies much closer together in overall profit. It muted the profit from the high R:R strategies and boosted the profit from the low R:R strategies. This tells me pair correlation was skewing my data quite a bit, so I'm glad I dug in a little deeper. Fortunately my original conclusion to use the -161.8 TP level with static stops is still the winner by a good bit, so it doesn't end up changing my actions. There were a few times where MANY (6-8) correlated pairs all came up at the same time, so it'd be a crapshoot to an extent. And the data showed this - often then won/lost together, but sometimes they did not. As an arbitrary rule, the more correlations, the more trades I did end up taking(and thus risking). For example if there were 3-5 correlations, I might take the 2 "best" trades given my criteria above. 5+ setups and I might take the best 3 trades, even if the pairs are somewhat correlated. I have no true data to back this up, but to illustrate using one example: if AUD/JPY, AUD/USD, CAD/JPY, USD/CAD all set up at the same time (as they did, along with a few other pairs on 6/19/20 9:00 AM), can you really say that those are all the same underlying movement? There are correlations between the different correlations, and trying to filter for that seems rough. Although maybe this is a known thing, I'm still pretty green to Forex - someone please enlighten me if so! I might have to look into this more statistically, but it would be pretty complex to analyze quantitatively, so for now I'm going with my gut and just taking a few of the "best" trades out of the handful. Overall, I'm really glad I went further on this. The boosting of the B/E strategies makes me trust my calculations on those more since they aren't so far from the passive management like they were with the raw data, and that really had me wondering what I did wrong.
What I will trade
Putting all this together, I am going to attempt to trade the following(demo for a bit to make sure I have the hang of it, then for keeps):
"System Details" I described above.
TP at -161.8%
Static SL at opposite side of confirmation candle - I won't move stops up to breakeven.
Trade only 7am-11am and 4pm-11pm signals.
Nothing where spread is more than 25% of trade width.
Looking at the data for these rules, test results are:
Adjusted Proft % (takes spread into account): 47.43%
I'll be sure to let everyone know how it goes!
Other Technical Details
ATR is only slightly elevated in this date range from historical levels, so this should fairly closely represent reality even after the COVID volatility leaves the scalpers sad and alone.
The sample size is much too small for anything really meaningful when you slice by hour or pair. I wasn't particularly looking to test a specific pair here - just the system overall as if you were going to trade it on all pairs with a reasonable spread.
Here's the spreadsheet for anyone that'd like it. (EDIT: Updated some of the setups from the last few days that have fully played out now. I also noticed a few typos, but nothing major that would change the overall outcomes. Regardless, I am currently reviewing every trade to ensure they are accurate.UPDATE: Finally all done. Very few corrections, no change to results.) I have some explanatory notes below to help everyone else understand the spiraled labyrinth of a mind that put the spreadsheet together.
I'm on the East Coast in the US, so the timestamps are Eastern time.
Time stamp is from the confirmation candle, not the indecision candle. So 7am would mean the indecision candle was 6:00-6:59 and the confirmation candle is 7:00-7:59 and you'd put in your order at 8:00.
I found a couple AM/PM typos as I was reviewing the data, so let me know if a trade doesn't make sense and I'll correct it.
Insanely detailed spreadsheet notes
For you real nerds out there. Here's an explanation of what each column means:
Pair - duh
Date/Time - Eastern time, confirmation candle as stated above
Win to -61.8%? - whether the trade made it to the -61.8% TP level before it hit the original SL.
Win to -100%? - whether the trade made it to the -100% TP level before it hit the original SL.
Win to -161.8%? - whether the trade made it to the -161.8% TP level before it hit the original SL.
Retracement level between -61.8% and -100% - how deep the price retraced after hitting -61.8%, but before hitting -100%. Be careful to look for the negative signs, it's easy to mix them up. Using the fib% levels defined in ParallaxFX's original thread. A plain hyphen "-" means it did not retrace, but rather went straight through -61.8% to -100%. Positive 100 means it hit the original SL.
Retracement level between -100% and -161.8% - how deep the price retraced after hitting -100%, but before hitting -161.8%. Be careful to look for the negative signs, it's easy to mix them up. Using the fib% levels defined in ParallaxFX's original thread. A plain hyphen "-" means it did not retrace, but rather went straight through -100% to -161.8%. Positive 100 means it hit the original SL.
Trade Width(Pips) - the size of the confirmation candle, and thus the "width" of your trade on which to determine position size, draw fib levels, etc.
Loser saved by 2 candle stop? - for all losing trades, whether or not the 2-candle stop loss would have saved the trade and how far it ended up getting if so. "No" means it didn't save it, N/A means it wasn't a losing trade so it's not relevant.
Spread(ThinkorSwim) - these are typical spreads for these pairs on ToS.
Spread % of Width - How big is the spread compared to the trade width? Not used in any calculations, but interesting nonetheless.
True Risk(Trade Width + Spread) - I set my SL at the opposite side of the confirmation candle knowing that I'm actually exposing myself to slightly more risk because of the spread(stop order = market order when submitted, so you pay the spread). So this tells you how many pips you are actually risking despite the Trade Width. I prefer this over setting the stop inside from the edge of the candle because some pairs have a wide spread that would mess with the system overall. But also many, many of these trades retraced very nearly to the edge of the confirmation candle, before ending up nicely profitable. If you keep your risk per trade at 1%, you're talking a true risk of, at most, 1.25% (in worst-case scenarios with the spread being 25% of the trade width as I am going with above).
Win or Loss in %(1% risk) including spread TP -61.8% - not going to go into huge detail, see the spreadsheet for calculations if you want. But, in a nutshell, if the trade was a win to 61.8%, it returns a positive # based on 61.8% of the trade width, minus the spread. Otherwise, it returns the True Risk as a negative. Both normalized to the 1% risk you started with.
Win or Loss in %(1% risk) including spread TP -100% - same as the last, but 100% of Trade Width.
Win or Loss in %(1% risk) including spread TP -161.8% - same as the last, but 161.8% of Trade Width.
Win or Loss in %(1% risk) including spread TP -100%, and move SL to breakeven at 61.8% - uses the retracement level columns to calculate profit/loss the same as the last few columns, but assuming you moved SL to 0% fib level after price hit -61.8%. Then full TP at 100%.
Win or Loss in %(1% risk) including spread take off half of position at -61.8%, move SL to breakeven, TP 100% - uses the retracement level columns to calculate profit/loss the same as the last few columns, but assuming you took of half the position and moved SL to 0% fib level after price hit -61.8%. Then TP the remaining half at 100%.
Overall Growth(-161.8% TP, 1% Risk) - pretty straightforward. Assuming you risked 1% on each trade, what the overall growth level would be chronologically(spreadsheet is sorted by date).
Based on the reasonable rules I discovered in this backtest:
Date range: 6/11-7/3
Adjusted Proft % (takes spread into account): 47.43%
Demo Trading Results
Since this post, I started demo trading this system assuming a 5k capital base and risking ~1% per trade. I've added the details to my spreadsheet for anyone interested. The results are pretty similar to the backtest when you consider real-life conditions/timing are a bit different. I missed some trades due to life(work, out of the house, etc), so that brought my total # of trades and thus overall profit down, but the winrate is nearly identical. I also closed a few trades early due to various reasons(not liking the price action, seeing support/resistance emerge, etc). A quick note is that TD's paper trade system fills at the mid price for both stop and limit orders, so I had to subtract the spread from the raw trade values to get the true profit/loss amount for each trade. I'm heading out of town next week, then after that it'll be time to take this sucker live!
Date range: 7/9-7/30
Adjusted Proft % (takes spread into account): 20.73%
Starting Balance: $5,000
Ending Balance: $6,036.51
Live Trading Results
I started live-trading this system on 8/10, and almost immediately had a string of losses much longer than either my backtest or demo period. Murphy's law huh? Anyways, that has me spooked so I'm doing a longer backtest before I start risking more real money. It's going to take me a little while due to the volume of trades, but I'll likely make a new post once I feel comfortable with that and start live trading again.
Hey everyone, I just started to practice with forex trading. I started on osprey but after some research i found out that it's not a official broker. So i made a demo account on oanda.... After some trading i found out that i make less money on oanda. Cause when i trade with a 100 leverage on osprey and i trade with 0.6 lot size it's worth about 400$ and on oanda i trade with 0.12 also 400$. So per pip i make significant less money. The question is if someone can give me a good explinasion for this. Are there any official brokers that give a bigger return than oanda ? Thanks in advanced.
I am currently happy with my Forex trading (examples in comments). I'm wanting to expand to stocks but I feel lost.
TL;DR I feel brand new to day trading anything other than currencies and I'm having trouble finding the right resources to get started. Help? Will trade answers regarding trend trading. Hey folks, I've been involved in Forex for about 6-7 years now. Light bulb moment happened right around 2 years ago and I'm content with the growth rate of my account since then. I trade very, very simply. I look for established trends on higher timeframes (8h, 12h, daily, weekly), wait for a pullback, and then enter with fib retracements and supp/resistance on what I perceive as momentum. The moving average serves no technical purpose. It's simply a different type of visual representation of price movement. There's nothing revolutionary here. eurjpy example https://preview.redd.it/hmko1b2t3id51.png?width=624&format=png&auto=webp&s=56ecf58261f211f7e7f6468507ce7a0edce779b3 audusd examples: https://preview.redd.it/rkifv53v3id51.png?width=774&format=png&auto=webp&s=315f2b381c7240cbcc23f49944f356faa8d4c5ef nzdcad https://preview.redd.it/uuzcshs4aid51.png?width=601&format=png&auto=webp&s=bbf806a28f5fe2bddf5e630da7f7d3f744ee9084 I want to expand into day trading but again, I feel lost. Small cap? Large cap? Reading tape? Scrapers? Volume aggregation? stock scanning scripts? Runners? Bag holding? Apparently shorting is a big deal? Penny stocks compared to "normal" stocks? which brokers offer what? ALSO, some of these charts feel chaotic at best. The choppiness just appears unreal. Price action in Forex can be choppy, but at least it's "smooth" in the sense that price opens at the same price the previous candle closed at 99% of the time. It doesn't really help that most of the youtube resources I've come across focus on getting rich quick, or aspects of trading that I do believe are important (psychology, money management, FOMO, indicators, etc.) but I do not need help with. I'm still improving, but I've got a solid grip on these aspects and they are not what I'm looking for. I guess what I'm looking for specifically is information on the nuances, technicals, vernacular, and details that are inherent in day trading stocks that don't exist in forex. Most of the stuff I listed in the above paragraph are accurate examples. I have zero interest in scalping Forex. I'm active duty with a full time day job which is part of the reason I strictly trade higher time frames. I've also found that the manner in which I prefer to trade is more reliable at higher time frames. That being said I am interested in getting into stocks as well as Forex and will have the option to move to second shift and trade the morning bell and all the liquidity that comes with it in the next couple months. I'm looking to get educated in the interim. It's likely that I'll eventually move into long-term trading with stocks as well, but who knows. Does anyone have any resources or suggestions for materials that touch on topics similar to what's listed above that they found helpful when first jumping in? I'm looking for the option to trade stocks, commodities, penny stocks, etc. Oh, I currently trade with Oanda through Tradingview and I'm considering TDAmeritrade. I can get around the PDT rule but I'm not in a hurry and would probably like to start with penny stocks with something like $5-10k I think? The problem is I'm just unsure. My personal philosophy is that demo trading is useless after buttonology. Instead I have found that trading small amounts of real money provides much better results in the long term.
I have been reading all I can find on here and the internet for a good broker to start with and see the multitude of responses. I originally wanted to day trade stocks and made an account with TD Ameritrade but found that just didn't work with my work schedule. For the past couple months I've looked into forex. I had planned on funding my td account with the $2000 min after some more paper trading but see they won't allow accounts in Arizona which is where I plan to move soon. So now back to looking at brokers I've made a demo account with IG and plan to do the same with Oanda and Pepperstone. Can any of you give experiences as a US trader and preferably with a smaller account? I like that pepperstone has mt5 as an option and if u went with them would probably use that over mt4. I hate to learn mt4 if it will just be slowly phased out. What are your thoughts on all this?
Ninjatrader - Selected Dorman, but now which broker for license key?
Having been approved by Dorman and receiving the green light to fund a Ninjatrader8 account, I now must purchase a license key. When purchasing the license key, I must once again select a broker. My options are: "NinjaTrader Brokerage" "City Index" "FOREX.com" "FXCM (non-US)" "Interactive Brokers" "Oanda" "TD AMERITRADE" "Multi Broker (Includes all above)" "CQG (for existing customers only)" I'm not really sure what I'm selecting at this stage. Is there any advantage between one and another? Does choosing something like "TD Ameritrade" change anything about the platform or chart-trading abilities I've gotten used to on the Ninjatrader Demo? Does Dorman fall under "NinjaTrader Brokerage"? Is it advantageous to select "Multi Broker" so that my trades can execute on any of the above brokerages, allowing for increased liquidity?
I had been using this particular demo account for the last 2 weeks or so. Been practicing my new strategy successfully on indices. I was previously on the Practice 4 server which which was perfect. Fast forward today, I get an email from Oanda saying they've moved me to a Practice 2 server. I log in to the new one and it only has Forex pairs and no indices. Plus, all my trade history is now gone. I feel like they didn't want me to continue developing my strategy since I was being successful with my trading. I feel cheated. Has anyone experienced this before?
College forex trader - would appreciate some help!
So a few months ago, someone I had met in the first few weeks of my first semester at college, had been posting pictures of his MT4 account with his profits, and I was pretty intrigued. I asked him what it was, and he said it was the Forex market, so I wanted to learn more and asked to meet up with him. When we met he was explaining it a little more and told me that he was in this networking trade group called IMarketsLive and went on to offer for me to sign up, upon which I said I wanna do a little research before I sign up for anything. And so I did, and saw a lot of different opinions about IML and the things they do, and I wasn't really attracted to the networking aspect and also did not want to start paying $275 a month just to be in the group. It seemed to me like it was kind of a pyramid scheme, so I turned down the offer but decided to try to learn about the Forex market for free on my own. I started doing more research about it in my free time, and eventually I discovered the BabyPips website where you can go through around a 330 lesson course, which goes through a lot of the basics and foundations of Forex trading. I made it through that in about a month and a half or so, and then opened up a demo account with IG. I watch a lot of youtube so more and more videos about forex started popping up in my recommended and have definitely helped along the road. One thing I saw is not to have a demo account for too long, so after around a month of having the demo and getting a little profit, I opened a live account with $300 on Oanda. I use their online trading platform and it's alright, there are some things I liked better with IG but that's besides the point. I've been trading with lots of 500 units or less so I'm only down about $6, but I feel like I'm kind of stuck. After all the stuff I've read and watched so far, I've come to understand that there are some key things every trader needs to do. From what I've seen, it's
develop and backtest a trading plan and follow it strictly
always use stop losses
have good risk management
have balance of technical and fundamental analysis (which I recently realized as I hadn't studied any fundamentals)
keep a trading journal
don't over leverage
have a good trading psychology
keep it simple
Among a few other things I might be forgetting, I understand these are crucial points to follow to become a successful trader. The only thing is I feel like I've flooded myself with so much information and I really don't know where to go from here. I don't have a trading plan mainly because the best thing I've heard to do is make one that fits my trading style, but simply put I don't know what my trading style is and don't know how to actually construct a usable plan. I know many people join the market because of the dream of turning $25 into a million dollars, however I don't have that mindset. Also I know I should focus first on preserving my capital and being consistent rather than focus on getting a lot of money, I just don't know how to do this. I am ready to put more effort into the market, I just don't know where to put it. Another thing to note is that for when I am ready and have developed a proper strategy and everything, I have sufficient capital (around $3k) to actually start making some serious profit. (for a 19 y/o!) Anyways, if you would like to give any advice, tips, things to avoid, stories, anything - that would be greatly appreciated! Thanks for reading👍 EDIT: This is my first time using reddit so I can't reply to anything because I don't have enough karma whatever that means. But thanks for your responses, they will definitely help me to start building my own strategy.
Hey guys just started learning about forex and started a demo account. I know most people recommend being in demo for a long time but im wondering if it would be okay to start a live account just trading very small, say, starting small at $$100-200, low leverage, trading very small just trying to get small profits ($10-20?) growing that account bit by bit. im in AU thinking of going with OANDA. anything to look out for? are fees a big deal? seems like theyre only cents to about 2 dollars based on my demo experience below https://imgur.com/a/u1lwxE2
Hey everyone! New to the subreddit, I've been lurking for a couple of weeks and picking up some good stuff, so thank you all for your contributions. A little background on me. I've been trading on and off for over 20 years. Made and lost several hundred thousand dollars while trading futures and equity options. I've never really gotten into forex before other than to do a little research and testing. I personally don't like to take pure directional bets so with futures I traded spreads and with options I was a premium seller. But I'm giving it a try now and my first month (January) I'm up 6% on my demo account. So I thought I'd start a fresh account for February and share how things go. I've set up a myfxbook too if you're interested. If things go well I'll probably go live in March or April with a small account. As indicated in the title I'm swing trading the daily charts, mostly holding trades for a few days although backtesting there are multi-week trends that I may have caught too, although I put much stock in backtesting. For trade entries I keep things very simple with just Support/Resistance and using Heikin Ashi to identify strength or weakness. I'll then check IG and Oanda open positions to confirm I'm taking a position opposite most retail traders. For TP I'm experimenting with multiples of ATR to take up to 2/3's off and allowing the remainder to ride with a trailing stop. For initial SL I've been using the high/low of the previous bar but I'm also experimenting with ATR there too since I've noticed that my trades tend to either go quickly right or quickly wrong and when they go wrong they don't come back and when they go right they don't retrace back to entry, so a tighter SL may be wise. Finally, I'm risking 1% of my account per trade. Tomorrow I'll post the pairs that I'll be looking to get into Monday. I think that's about it. If you have any questions or suggestions please feel free!
Hello, I am located in the US and have opened a demo account on both Oanda and TD for the past 2 years. I have found both platforms suitable to my needs (fxTrade and ToS), but am confused by all the fine print and am looking for pros and cons of each brokerage? I use TD for my IRA and at one point another investment account, I like the fact they have physical locations in my area, customer service reps, established company, etc. On the other hand I know Forex trading is just one service they offer (not a primary focus I am sure) and dislike the $2,000 minimum requirement. I understand Oanda to be a reputable broker with great service, but my primary concern is getting my money out, associated fees, finance charges, etc. I would ideally like to keep withdraw money as I make it (i.e. I make $100, I would like to be able to easily transfer that $100 to my bank account with NO FEEs at anytime). My plan is to fund an account with $2,000, but I do not want to re-buy in if I lose it all, and in the case with TD if I lose $500, I can no longer trade on margin (I believe). I also do not want to be on the hook for additional money if I lose it all as well. I plan to scalp/swing/day trade (in my demo accounts I think the longest I have held an open position is like 3 hours), and when I trade I do not plan on leaving my computer screen and monitoring my trade in addition to setting limits, so I will hopefully catch myself before I fall too far. I guess I am looking for anyone's experience (located in the USA), positive and negative, with either or both brokerages. Thank you.
US Traders- Anyone tried Thinkorswim by TD Ameritrade?
I'm currently using OandA for my demo account, didn't like Forex.com much at all, and just had the thought of checking out Thinkorswim by TD Ameritrade. I couldn't find much info on their website about forex, so I called and asked them questions. Here's what I found out:
They don't have commissions, but they build in their cost into the spread (like many others)
No charge to deposit or withdraw money (Nice, much better than OandA's $20 fee for withdrawing my gains)
No other fees
Custom scripting available in their charting software, which is built in
I forgot to ask about minimum lot size, but I can call back and get that info.
Brand new to forex, after messing around with stocks and ETFs for a year on robinhood. In trying to learn about this strange new world, seemingly every article warns me that trading forex is the fastest route to poverty, that I'll lose every dime I have and that I'm better off buying lottery tickets, UNLESS I have a risk management plan. That's all good and well, but it seems hard to find suggestions on how to actually manage my risk. So far what I have found is either unconvincing, or I just flat don't understand what is being explained. So I've landed here. Reading the Forex FAQ, in this sub, the advice is to use a very small amount of capital when starting off, and practice live trading from there. If then recommends a formula to use in order to calculate risk, which seems like quite a bit of running calculations for every single trade that I make. Is it really the case that every Forex Trader that manages risk runs a series of calculations for each and every trade in order to figure out pip value and leverage amount, such matter and what have you? Second problem, before even getting to the risk management section of this Subs FAQ, I'm told to read The Beginner's Guide on baby Pips. Babypips says that when you first start off trading you should not start small because then you will never be able to weather times of drawdown. They recommend something like an initial deposit of $20,000 or 50,000, and saying that if you don't have that much then build up your savings and come back the Forex when you have that to drop into the market. Are you kidding me? My original plan before reading either of those guides was to deposit $300 and use something like a 10 to 1 or 20 to 1 Leverage. The part that I'm hung up on which really baffles me and I need some help understanding is everywhere seems to say that I should only risk one or 2% of my account. I don't really understand what that means. My trading app, OandA allows me to set default trade settings. One of them is trade size, which I can select an option "%Lev NAV" In all of my general Trading I have kept this number at 100, assuming that it is simply using 100% of my account for each trade. I am also using a system in order to Define very specific entry points with a one-to-one risk reward ratio, setting a stop loss and take profit Target, usually between 9 and 60 Pips in size, depending on the instrument. Thus far, each trade that I have won usually amounts to a 3 to 8% change in the demo account value, which seems comprable to what I was experiencing with stocks and ETFs back on Robinhood. For the last 4 trades I've made, I'm up 15%. Do I need to adjust this % Lev NAV down to 1% instead of 100? Or do I really need to download a pip value calculator app and make a determination after solving some arithmetic? I just can't seem to figure this out, and different sources use the same words interchangeably yet differently. When risking 1% of my account, does that include leverage, or not, in the trade? And if the most anyone recommends to risk in a trade is 1-2% then why use leverage at all? Won't the returns on 1% be so small as to be negligible? I don't seem to understand how it could possibly be Worth while to spend all that time trading... 1℅ of $300 is three bucks. As I understand it, that would allow me to buy 2 units of the EUUSD... there's no way that could be right, right? Thanks for your patience and for reading this whole, chapter-length, question of a post. I look forward to some clarity. I don't know how to switch to live trading, and the demo account does nothing to simulate leverage.
New in this space, downloaded MT4 with demo accounts from forex.com and OandA and neither allow you to trade gold...the symbol doesn't show up :( I read the wiki & understand now why that is. So, what are some safe/reliable forex trading services that you guys are using that allow a US citizen to trade gold?
I'm interested in trading Forex, I was wondering how I even begin doing this. Right now I have TD Ameritrade, and the option to purchase EUUSD on ToS, unsure if it is leveraged. I've been following the market for a while and I find the volatility to be captivating. Coming from trading equities and options, is it absurd of me to expect to make money by passively trading currency with limit buys and limit sells?
Hello this is my first time posting here, I recently got into forex not too long ago with a demo account and i did pretty well so i decided to open a live account using Oanda as my broker. I heard that some brokers slow down charts on live accounts, is this true for Oanda? Ive noticed that once i switch to my Oanda live account the refresh rates for charts are much slower. Are there any alternatives that are as fast as the demo account for MT4? Thanks.
Is there a free datafeed which I can feed backtrader with?
I wanted to say "Free Live Datafeed" but seems I cannot edit the title. I am new to forex trading/algotrading, but am reading up on it recently. I wrote some simple EAs with metatrader but would like to switch to a general purpose programming language like python, which is when I came across backtrader. With metatrader, I have the option of opening a demo account with a broker and I can run my EA against the data from the broker. I read in the documentation (please correct me if I'm wrong) that backtrader supports live feeds from three brokers, namely IB, Oanda and Live Trading. Before I open an account with them, I would like to know if their demo accounts allow me the access to the data that I need to feed backtrader with. So my question do any of their demo accounts allow me to access the live data to feed backtrader? Another question which is not directly related, in the Oanda page https://developer.oanda.com/rest-live/introduction/ it says that the API version 1.0 will be deprecated. And backtrader seems to be using the version 1.0 https://cookbook.backtrader.com/documentation/live/oanda/oanda/. Does anyone know if version 2.0 support will be added to backtrader?
Just curious, what is everyone’s background here and what do you do for a living? Do you trade for a living or just as a hobby, for how long? Where are you located and what broker do you use? Background/Education: B.Comm graduate Work: Government/Military Forex Situation: Hobby; on a demo account Forex Experience: 5 months, demo only Location: Ontario, Canada Broker: Oanda or IB once I go live
Hello im a crypto trader, ive made many trades from october to now, from 400$ to 4.2 million, i now want to start trading the forex with 100k My method of trading involves using 50:1 margin with all 100k on leverage, (ive tried this on the demo) this how i did in crypto, i was extremely successful with demo accounts My question is will i able to duplicate the same results using platforms like OANDA or should I look somewhere since i need my orders to be filled semi instantly and i usually sell at 10k profits usually so 3-10 pips,( is this feasible with my margin on a platform?) Ive tried searching online but most people dont seem to follow this strat EDIT: i dont really reddit much and just made this account when i was young and a troll so i dont know if im doing this reddit thing right i receive a ton of usefull information and help and even some job offers, some people actually recognize who i was from the crypto community , im going to continue my research and probably enter the forex market; the latest in june, so expect an update from me mid/late summer Thank you all for the help and information you provided! i hope it helps others who had a hard time finding stuff like this online like me!
Oanda refused me an account due to lack of knowledge, then decided to give it to me anyway and deposit £250 for free. Cause for concern?
I've been demo trading for about half a year now, and got it into my head that i was probably ready to start trading for real. Doing some research for accounts to set up i came across Oanda and saw positive reviews and that they were one of the older fx traders. Seeming reliable, i went to sign up for an account with them. At the end of their account process it asks you multiple questions, testing you on your knowledge of the Forex market. I did not pass, and had my account refused. Taking this as a sign i was not ready, i've gone back to learning, found this subreddit and am currently running through the Babypips course. I would have thought this the end of the story, but three weeks later i receive a missed call/voicemail from Oanda, saying that they wish to speak to me about opening my account. I ignored it, since i'm still going through the course. A few days later they call me again, leaving another voicemail to chase, and then again. After the third one i just blocked the number, but i kept getting voicemails from them. Listening to these they now tell me that they've gone through with creating my account, and they've deposited £250 for me to start spending. They also say that after five completed trades i'll be able to withdraw the money. They have since called me about ten times, once a day, always leaving a voicemail. Considering they originally denied me an account due to lack of knowledge (which i'm perfectly willing to accept, i was trying to jump in too early) this all seems kind of dodgy. They're not only giving me an account, but they're encouraging me to get to trading, when they specifically know that i wasn't able to pass the test. Is this normal behaviour for a group like Oanda? Are they trying to target me like i was purely a gambler? Should i take advantage(sign into the account, make five tiny trades, close them and withdraw the <£250)? Or do i just contact them to tell them to close the account and leave me alone, (or just ignore them altogether)? Thanks in advance.
I'm brand new to forex . What is the best way to learn the basics ?
Hey /Forex . I'm really interested in getting into trading . What is the best way to learn the basics an get started ? Any apps for trading via phone also because I'm without a computer . I'm traveling the world at the moment and find myself with a lot of free time and am really interested in trading . If anyone could point me in the right direction it would be greatly appreciated .
So I have been involved with trading forex with a demo account for almost a year and am looking for a new platform to use. I obviously heard of MetaTrader, Tradingview and Oanda (Not too familiar with this one). I am Canadian and Oanda seems to be quite popular among Canadians but am open to using the first 2. I am also looking to now open a real account with $500 so out of the three suggested please let me know what you think the best one to use is.
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How to create a Real Account and a Demo Account in OANDA
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